A Quick Final Addition to Papal Contenders

The Conclave is getting underway and I have a quick final addition to the list of contenders, and I think he's a major one now after reactions to a speech he gave this week.

See earlier post part 1 and part 2

Cardinal Pablo Virgilio David of the Philippines, is a gifted multilingual communicator, pastor, academic, and advocate for human rights in the midst of the recent difficult presidential regimes in the Philippines. He apparently gave a powerful speech in the pre-conclave meetings that was well-received. He’d be a continuation of Francis’s reforms and simple style, and I believe would be a great choice for pope. He doesn’t have the time served in Rome that is often helpful but he was one of the cardinals that participated in the recent Synods and has been elected by peers to various leadership roles.

Updated probabilities, including a couple of other small changes (additions of Hollerich and Lopez Romero and a few % adjustments):