Why Care?

It may seem irrelevant, especially if you're not Catholic - just a bunch of old guys in dresses who are pretty much all the same, right? However, there are deep differences among them in ideology, personality, competence, and style, and the result of this election will impact the world for many years to come.

The Pope deeply influences how people view the church and God, not just for Catholics, but for the whole world, as the most prominent figure in the global Church. He partially drives what topics are discussed in the world, influences world leaders, impacts who leads in the Catholic Church and in what way, and impacts the day-to-day experience of church life for millions of individuals. In my view, Pope Francis did very well in all of these aspects, especially in the synodal process that he initiated which continues the best of the Second Vatican Council in a way that is reshaping how the Catholic Church makes decisions and broadens engagement throughout the world.

This election may choose someone who continues and extends the work of Pope Francis, or someone who seeks to reverse it. Millions will feel the impact.

How It Works

In a few weeks, all those Archbishops assigned the rank of Cardinal by past popes (excluding those age 80 or above), will gather in the Vatican for the conclave. They will be sequestered and cast a series of secret ballots (a few ballots per day) until a candidate receives a two-thirds majority. Technically any Catholic male can be voted for but typically votes are cast only for cardinals. Black smoke is released from the Sistine Chapel chimney after each vote until there is a Pope elected, and white smoke is released.

What Will Win the College Over?

Humility, Modesty, Simplicity

While Francis has been controversial among Church leaders, I believe a key characteristic of his that they admire and will look for is his humility/modesty/simplicity. A popular saying goes, “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.” I believe that will be true here. Current culture, both in the conclave and the broader church, will not react well to those who are ambitious, proud, or pompous. The era of Cardinals being “Princes of the Church” lording power and pomp over all others are dwindling. The ambitious candidates may have strong showings in the early ballots, but they are unlikely to reach two-thirds.

Communication, Inspiration, Personality, Pastoral Care

Francis also won hearts as a vibrant and inspiring communicator with a personality that drew others to himself and a concern for authentic and personal pastoral care. These also are characteristics the College will look for, as they are vital to the type of leadership the Pope must provide to engage the global church and beyond. Time spent pastorally caring for people in diocesan work will be a plus.

Ability to speak key languages in the life of the church and the world, including English/Italian/Spanish/French/Portuguese/Mandarin is also a big plus, both in navigating the College and in being an effective Pope.

Experience, Management, Diplomacy

The Pope is also the executive of a massive worldwide bureaucracy and a key figure in international relations. Positive managerial experience without the baggage of past administrative snafus, experience with the Roman Curia (bureaucracy), and experience with world leaders will all be positives.

Geography and Age

Demographics are always a key element in choosing a Pope. Cardinals are wary of choosing a relatively “young” Pope (we're talking under… 65?), as they may then be in office for 20 or even 30 years, and that is a big gamble, especially in a College with deep divisions. A very old Pope would probably also be avoided as leadership will require energy to act and time to make an impact, but if compromise is needed, an older candidate (late 70’s?) may be selected.

Geography is also key. Though Popes have almost entirely been from Europe for a millennium or more and Francis was groundbreaking, the Church is an ever more global body, as is the College of Cardinals, with growing numbers and interests in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Electing a Pope from one of these areas offers benefits to the image of the Church and the Pope’s ability to engage well beyond Europe, but there may be hesitance to elect a second consecutive Latin American Pope, and more socially conservative views in Africa may have the College turning to more moderate Asian options. Popes from the major world powers like the United States are also unlikely.

Continuity vs. Reaction

Here’s the big question. The College is divided on the legacy of Francis. Will they choose someone largely in line with his work or in opposition to it? Cardinals are hard to categorize as this covers so many areas - reform of the liturgy, changes to church decision-making processes, handling of social issues, chosen focuses in global political and economic issues, and much more - and those topics don't all fit together in neat boxes.

However, I’ve reviewed each elector and placed them into these simplified general categories to get a sense of the College’s appetite for continuity or reversal of Francis’s changes.

All in all, though there are some loud anti-Francis voices, I think most generally want to continue his legacy, especially around the synodal process and adjustment to church structures to get more people engaged. There's more hesitance, in my view, around any sweeping changes on social issues regarding gender roles in the church and sexuality especially, but a deep concern for issues of migration, conflict, and economics.

This College is unlikely to elect a seriously anti-Francis candidate or someone looking for even more “progressive” change than Francis. A candidate broadly in continuity with Francis, but at least acceptable to moderates, is likely.

We’re looking at a humble pastoral leader, engaged with world events and leaders, not a loudly outspoken partisan on the divisive issues, but willing to engage with them, a proven manager, likely able to speak one or more of English, Italian, French, or Spanish, and very possibly from Asia and age 65-75.

Contenders

So where does that leave us?

Obscure Names to Know - My Top Four Predictions

These are largely not the names floating around in most media stories, though they sometimes will get a mention. However, with the dynamics of a real conclave and all I’ve discussed above, these stand out.

Anders Arborelius - Sweden. If I had to pick a most likely candidate right now, it would be him. The humble Swede has all that I've noted above the College will look for, except that he’s from Europe, but Sweden is more acceptable than the major powers. He would be a great communicator, knows the pastoral and the bureaucratic well, has no clear baggage, shares the particular concern of many for the environment, and could balance the church's competing factions.

“I would like to point out […] a man who is a model of guidance: Cardinal Anders Arborelius. He is not afraid of anything. He talks to everybody and is not against anybody. He always aims for the positive. I believe that a person like him can indicate the right path to follow.” — Pope Francis

William Goh - Singapore. A lesser known Asian candidate than Cardinal Tagle, discussed below, but a more palatable candidate to a larger portion of cardinals and Tagle's chances are in decline. With fluency in English, Mandarin, and an understanding of the politics of Asia, as well as a moderate ideology and personality that can make it through a conclave, this may be the man for the moment. He hasn't been around the Roman bureaucracy though, so we’ll see if that is an obstacle.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa - Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. An Italian who is the leading Catholic in Israel and Palestine, he’s received much more attention during the intensified conflict of the past couple of years and his experience there would be a valuable asset for a Pope. He’s been an inspiring figure, but many of his views on the Church’s divisive topics are less well-known and he doesn’t have experience with the bureaucracy. More conservative cardinals may hope his less-defined views lean more their way than other top options.

Charles Maung Bo - Myanmar. Recently ending his stint leading the Federation of Asian Bishops Conferences, he’s a quiet but experienced and networked leader among the Asian cardinals. He’s served in the tensions of Myanmar under a repressive government and brings a more moderate position on the most divisive issues in the Church. Again, little experience with the Vatican bureaucracy could be an obstacle, and he’s not as much the multi-lingual communicator as other top options.

Three Perceived Frontrunners with a Chance

Mario Grech - Malta. As Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, he's been a key facilitator of Francis's vision and will be one of the most known cardinals to all of the others. He's seen as a candidate of continuity with Francis, but his personality may rub some the wrong way, and those in opposition to Francis may see him as too close. An activist group is also claiming he previously mishandled abuse cases in his diocese.

Peter Turkson - Ghana. He’s Africa's best chance at a Pope this time around, but I think his chances are dropping. In the bureaucratic shufflings of the last few years, I see reason to question the confidence of Francis and others in his management. He also may be seen as too ambitious and too socially conservative for many (while too African for certain conservatives who still can't imagine an African Pope).

Luis Tagle - Philippines. Often called an “Asian Francis”, he's very much a continuity candidate and he's one of the most commonly discussed possibilities for the next Pope, but I think his chances have dropped significantly from a few years ago. Signs suggest he was less in-favor with Francis recently and there may have been some questions about his management skills as Francis had his work audited and his role changed. He also may be viewed as too ambitious for some, and too much like Francis for those against him. An activist group is also claiming he previously mishandled abuse cases in his diocese.

The Opposition's Most Realistic Option?

Malcolm Ranjith - Sri Lanka. For those opposed to the reforms of Francis, he may be their best chance to turn back time. While not a vocal partisan figure, Ranjith does bring a somewhat more traditional perspective along with an Asian background, managerial and pastoral success, and a skill with many languages that might just bring more progressive cardinals around.

A Brazilian Surprise?

I think Brazilian cardinals are way too under the radar, largely because media see consecutive Latin American Popes as unlikely. However, Brazil is a major force in global Catholicism, and Brazilian cardinals are a major presence in the conclave. Latin American cardinals form the core of those seeking to carry on Francis’s legacy, and electing one of their own is a major possibility, especially once the more well-known candidates recede. They might just be a shade too progressive to reach two-thirds though.

Two names that stand out to me, even though they are not being talked about at all:

João Braz de Aviz, a major figure both as a pastoral figure in Brazil and now as a leader in the Vatican bureaucracy. He’s the right age, a proven communicator and manager, a clear continuity with Francis with potential for broad appeal.
Sérgio da Rocha, a cardinal Francis clearly trusted and aligned with, and considered an expert on reaching youth, both in Brazilian and global conversations. He's also leading the Brazilian Bishops Conference and continues to move up the ranks and show his leadership potential.

Long-shots, Including Two of the Biggest Names

Fridolin Ambongo Besungu - Democratic Republic of Congo. It would be powerful to have a Pope from the DRC right now, and he was a key Francis adviser. However, I think there is just too much baggage.

Péter Erdő - Hungary. You’ll see him at the top of a lot of lists, but I don’t think it is going to happen. He’s the great hope of the opposition to Francis. He's an impressive figure, a key Vatican official, and has been diplomatic in handling his differences with Francis, but I don’t think the votes are there.

Jean-Marc Aveline - France. A close friend of Francis and a favored candidate of the more progressive cardinals, but probably a bit too far for the bulk of the college, especially coming from a major European power like France.

Dominique Mamberti, Kurt Koch, Pietro Parolin - France, Switzerland, Italy. Key Vatican figures. Mamberti and Parolin particularly known for diplomatic work. All are probably not the pastoral types I think this College will want. Parolin, as Secretary of State, has essentially been Francis's #2 and is at the top of a lot of lists, but I have significant doubts.

This Literally Came to Me in a Dream

José Fuerte Advincula - Phillippines. This is very unlikely. I don’t think he will be Pope but I have to mention it. It’s not entirely impossible. Also a Filipino Pope would be cool.

Anyway, last night, between the time that Pope Francis died and the time that I woke up to the news, I had a dream of a conclave (I promise this is a one-time thing, I'm not obsessed, really) and I saw this Cardinal elected and woke up with his name in my mind, even though I have very little idea of much about him and have only seen his name a couple of times before. What does it mean? Why did it happen?

Who Do I Hope to See?

Honestly, Advincula would actually be pretty good. A little bit more realistically I’d hope for one of the Brazilian surprises, Braz de Aviz or Da Rocha. Among the top candidates, it would be great to see Tagle, but there are some lingering questions about management. So, I'd probably say I'm hoping for Arborelius most among those I see as the top options, followed by Maung Bo and Goh.

The Long List

You’ll hear some other big names getting bounced around if you read about this, but they aren’t going to happen: Sarah, Ouellet, Scherer, Zuppi, Eijk, Mueller, Prevost, Dolan, Marx, Schoenborn - either they are also-rans from past conclaves who are not the man for the present moment, or they are too far to the extremes, or they are American.

Here’s my list in order of probability as perceived by me. Of course there are 252 cardinals, so it would really extend much further: