Final Pre-Conclave Expectations

See Part 1: The Next Pope? 4 Obscure Names to Know

When will a pope be announced?

The conclave starts Wednesday evening (local Roman time), and after the first day, two back-to-back votes will be held each morning and each evening. So in the United States, the announcement of a pope would likely be in the very early morning hours or early afternoon.

A winner on the first few ballots is unlikely, so the earliest to reasonably expect an announcement would be early afternoon on Thursday, US time. This would be a similar time frame to the elections of Popes Benedict and Francis, though these were quick conclaves in comparison to many in history.

Personally, I’d expect a bit longer conclave, going into the 3rd or 4th day, with an announcement on Friday or Saturday.

Does the conclave length suggest who might be elected?

The length of the conclave does serve as a small indicator of how it is going. A quick conclave would suggest quicker unity and consensus, making the chances of any of the following more likely: a more well-known or expected candidate, a candidate more clearly in continuity with Francis, and/or a relatively younger candidate that the cardinals are more comfortable having in office for a longer time.

A quick conclave ending on Thursday or Friday would be good news for the following candidates’ chances (though another candidate could still very well be elected): Tagle, Parolin, Grech, Ambongo Besungu, Zuppi, Aveline.

The longer the conclave goes, the more likely it is a more divided event struggling to find consensus, especially if it is stretching out to six or more days. Chances increase here for compromise candidates - less expected, more ideologically moderate, perceived as more distant from Francis, and/or older candidates who will have a shorter papacy. That would be good news for the following candidates’ chances: Goh, Maung Bo, Ranjith, Braz de Aviz, Koch, Heung-Sik, Mamberti.

To an extent, I see Arborelius, Pizzaballa, and Turkson as somewhat of a mixture of both sets of characteristics, and fairly likely in either case.

Predicting a Papal Name

Popes choose a papal name when elected, and with so many names in the world, they're almost impossible to predict. 81 different papal names have been used to this point Francis made an unusual choice to use a name that had never been used before. I suspect this is going to be more common in this century, with a shift towards using the names of key figures in the gospels and early church. I wonder, with the significant need for focus on migrants and workers, if the next pope might choose the name Joseph, in reference to Jesus’ father.

My Predictions vs. Media Perceptions

The chart below shows my predictions (top to bottom) graphed against a measure (right to left) of how commonly cardinals appear on media lists and their betting odds (yes, that’s a thing, though not legal in the US). So, the further a candidate is towards the upper left, the more I think the media is underestimating their chances. The further they are towards the bottom right, the more I think their chances are overestimated. Candidates like Zuppi and Marx (more “progressive”) or Erdo, Sarah, Burke, and Eijk (more “conservative”) are over-covered by media because they are perceived as clear representatives of the more extreme ideological ends among the cardinals. However, I think the College is both too reasonable and too divided to select one of these options. Prevost and Tobin are over-covered in American media because they are American and most media over-covers their own cardinals to meet reader interest.

Generally, I think a cardinal less well-known and less clearly associated with Francis is more likely than media lists suggest, though the person would still be broadly in continuity with Francis, especially in humility, pastoral presence, care for the poor and migrants, and support for the synodal process reforms Francis has begun. I think a non-Tagle Asian candidate (Goh, Maung Bo, Ranjith, Heung-Sik, Advincula, Hardjoatmodjo) is much more likely than media reports suggest, but various other candidates are, of course, possible as well.

A chart of probability

Candidate Review - Who to hope for

Anders Arborelius - Sweden

He's still my top pick for most likely Pope, if I had to choose one, though he’s not on all that many lists.

I think he would be a great choice. He seems to bring humility and simplicity, (especially as a Carmelite monk!), pastoral experience, Vatican experience, command of languages, experience with inter-religious dialogue and secular settings, and clear concern for and experience with advocating for migrants, those in poverty, and environmental concerns. I think he could be a unifying figure on major church questions while still broadly moving in the direction of Francis’s reforms. There are no major “baggage” issues from his past as far as I am aware. He’s also at the 75-year-old sweet spot which cardinals tend to prefer to elect.

William Goh - Singapore & Charles Maung Bo - Myanmar

I think Goh would be a compromise selection signifying a college divided over Francis’s reforms and looking to moderate them. His election also might suggest the complex situation between China and the Vatican is weighing heavily on the college, as he brings regional experience and fluency in Mandarin.

To me, Goh would be an acceptable candidate, though not one I'd hope for. He would not be a radical break from Francis’s direction, but I’d hope the college has more support for deepening reform on a variety of topics than Goh's election would suggest. He also doesn’t have the experience with the Vatican that I'd hope to see in a candidate, as that lack of experience would slow his ability to bring reforms and needed change.

Maung Bo is also acceptable and similar in much of what I’ve written above about Goh, except that I don’t think he speaks Mandarin. I’m a bit uncertain also about his ability to be the inspiring communicator that the papacy needs, though a pope coming from repressed Myanmar would itself be inspiring. He is part of the Salesian order, focused on charity and education for children in poverty, and seems likely to be a bit more positive towards Francis’s vision than Goh, so I think I’d prefer Maung Bo between them.

Both of these Southeast Asian options would be an exciting first, but not my top preference.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa - Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, from Italy

To me, Pizzaballa would signify a college with significant resistance to Francis’s reforms. Pizzaballa’s positions on many topics are less well-known than many others’, but some suggest that he would tend more towards some of the traditionalist elements in the college. At a much younger age of 60, he would have a long papacy, and electing him would be a high-stakes move for the future of the church.

While he's had inspiring moments navigating conflict between Israel and Palestine, I am very wary of a Pizzaballa papacy. I’d like to see the church move past relying on Italians, and Pizzaballa's age and murky ideological positions risk major setbacks to the reforms Francis has set in motion. He seems to be a good person, but I’m not sure I'd like where the church ends up after two decades or more under his leadership.

He is, however, a Franciscan friar, which I do find reassuring. He's just a bit too much of a question mark for me, especially being relatively young.

High potential, but high risk

Mario Grech - Malta

I’d have mixed feelings. He’s very associated with Francis’s church structure reforms, and very familiar with the Vatican’s systems and what needs to be done, but there are questions floating about his interpersonal skills and his handling of abuse cases that leave me hoping for someone else. He also may be a bit more of a traditionalist on liturgical questions, though his election would signal the church is definitely ready to keep pursuing the structural side of Francis's reforms.

Luis Tagle - Philippines

I like a lot about Tagle. Especially having Filipino in-laws, there's a lot of energy for him around me, and I think he brings personal skills and ideological positions I'd hope to see in the church. However, he is one of the cardinals identified by an advocate group as needing investigation regarding handling of abuse cases, and his organizational management in the Vatican came under audit and he seemed to lose favor with Francis. He could be a transformational and inspiring figure taking the church in a needed direction, but I think there is risk in the questions around his ability to do it.

Peter Turkson - Ghana & Fridolin Ambongo Besungu - Democratic Republic of Congo

Africa’s two major candidates both give me reason for pause. I think significant questions have been raised about their tenures in management of church structures, and some of the social positions taken by African cardinals tend to be more “conservative” than I'd hope for, though Ambongo Besungu is likely better than Turkson there. A pope from Africa and the Congo especially would be an incredible and potentially transformative first in the current situation in that country, but I think there are major risks with both considering the need for significant and difficult organizational change needed in the church.

What I’m hoping doesn’t happen

Malcolm Ranjith - Sri Lanka & Péter Erdő - Hungary

These are the ones I hope not to see elected. Along with other less-likely options like Eijk, Sturla, and Mueller, I think these candidates would take the church in the wrong direction. Ranjith is definitely the least-bad option among them, a smart, good man, and a skillful linguist. He's also the most likely pope among them, and his election could be the result of a drawn-out and divisive conflict with more angst about Francis's reforms than I’m really expecting.

Pietro Parolin- Italy, Dominique Mamberti - France, & Kurt Koch - Switzerland

Parolin is the supposed frontrunner for many as the conclave begins. However, I'm hoping we don’t see one of these figures elected. Their experience is much more in diplomacy and Vatican bureaucracy. While those are needed skills in this time, I’m hoping (and I think the cardinals largely are looking for) more pastoral experience than these three have.

Jean-Marc Aveline - France & Matteo Zuppi - Italy

While I have a lot of sympathy for their more “progressive” views, I don't think that either has the mix of personal charisma, pastoral sensitivity, and managerial skill that would be needed to make them effective. I think they would be very divisive figures unable to bring about the reforms they would seek and would result in major reactionary backlash in the decades to come. I also don’t think men seen as “very-left” Europeans are what the church is looking for.

What I do hope for

I hope to see a cardinal with good pastoral sensitivity, proven effectiveness in management, simplicity and humility in their character and actions, ability to communicate effectively across nationalities, ages, and ideologies, and a desire to carry reform processes that Francis began even further. A non-European background would also be a big plus, strengthening the new pope’s ability to reach a broad audience and continuing to reshape the world’s imagination of the church.

Along with Arborelius (mentioned above) these others stand out to me as possibilities in that mold, though they are less likely than the first 7 or so mentioned above, in my opinion.

João Braz de Aviz and Sérgio da Rocha - Brazil

José Fuerte Advincula - Phillippines

Lazarus You Heung-Sik - South Korea

A name I didn’t have on my first newsletter on this, but he’s impressed as I've seen more. He leads the Vatican's office regarding clergy and seems to be a good mix of pastoral and managerial, with experience in East Asia, and good positions on major church issues as far as I can tell. He’s also part of the Focolare Movement. While I am still learning about it and it seems to be controversial for some Catholics (otherwise Heung-Sik would be among the top contenders in my list), it seems to me to be a good sign about a cardinal. It is a movement focusing on ecumenical and inter-religious dialogue, acts of love and service, patterns of communal living, and spiritual renewal and formation. To me, I think a cardinal formed by this movement yet accepted by the other cardinals as Pope would be a transformational figure for the church, in whom the Holy Spirit works deeply.